Decision Support for Complex Projects

RiskyDecisions offers solutions to streamline decision making for complex projects and strategies.

Typical applications are for construction and development projects within energy production, civil engineering, life sciences and IT.

Consistent modelling of project performance including quantified risks and uncertainties is key to most business decisions, including go/no-go, gate crossing decisions and project optimisation efforts. We also support consistent valuation of projects for commercial transactions (e.g. mergers, acquisitions, farm-in/out, tenders, etc).

Our services are supported by an efficient software package for simulation of project performance including models and templates for various industries.

Framing and Valuation Services

We support all phases of project maturation and development of operational strategies, i.e. framing – valuation – decision making.

Based on our Monte Carlo simulation tools, we facilitate integrated on-the-fly valuation in interactive sessions based on unfiltered knowledge input from relevant subject matter experts. This process provides unprecedented possibilities of using simulation results (e.g. Tornado Charts) directly in the valuable conversations on how to deal with risks and uncertainties.

The outcome of these conversations allows the business to define focus areas and strategic alternatives for the project.

 Software Strategy

We use Monte Carlo simulation techniques to evaluate possible outcome ranges as results of various strategies being considered. Our software is based on a very efficient calculation engine combined with high quality presentation graphics. The workflow structure makes our tools easily accessible for a wide group of users – not only a few Monte Carlo Simulation experts. We aim to deliver a unique user experience that will allow our customers to integrate risks and uncertainties in their workflow without compromising efficiency and simplicity, by:

  • keeping it as simple as possible
  • focusing on what really matters
  • being agile and failing fast
  • building confidence through insight

Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo Simulation is the most widely used technique for combining uncertainties from different sources. It enables modelling complex interactions in a simple way. Instead of using single point estimates, the Monte Carlo methodology allows the user to work with ranges (probability distributions) for various inputs such as size of resource accumulations, activity duration, market conditions, material consumption, costs, production volumes, pricing, time to market etc. This method makes it possible to estimate the likely outcome range rather than a single business case result of limited practical value.

 Software Packages

The RiskyDecisions software is available in 3 different packages, either as stand-alone monthly or annual subscription products or in a pay-as-you-go version in combination with our services. Our bundles cover the full range of applications from general projects, through industry specific business projects to enterprise portfolio modelling.

Software Features and Applications

The RiskyDecisions software suite covers a wide range of solutions for business problems across various industries.

By Industry

  • Construction Projects
    • Activity duration and costs
    • Tender offer
  • Thermal Power Generation
    • Smartgrids
    • Microgrids
    • CCGT
    • Biomass
  • Wind Power
    • Wind speed
    • Power curves
    • Foundations
    • Substations
    • Installation
    • Wake effects
    • Feed-in tariff
    • Decommissioning
  • Oil & Gas
    • Exploration
    • Hydrocarbons in place
    • Reserves
    • Wells and drilling
    • Production
    • Processing facilities
    • Hydrocarbon export
  • Geothermal
    • Drilling and completion
    • Well protection and management
    • Temperature profile
    • Cold water breakthrough
    • Heat exchange
  • Drug Development
  • Mecical Devices
  • IT Projects
  • Insurance
  • By Application

  • Project and Business Valuation
  • Decision Making under Uncertainty
  • Quantitative Risk Analysis
  • Value of Information and Options
  • Cost Estimation with Uncertainty
  • Resource and Reserve Estimates
  • Production, Cost and Revenue Profiles
  • Performance Forecasting
  • Cash Flow Analysis
  • By Feature

  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Probability Distributions
    • Histograms
    • Correlations
    • Crossplots
  • Time Series
  • Sensitivity diagrams
    • Tornado charts
    • Spider diagrams
  • Built-in and User-defined Functions
  • Multi-level Successive Calculations
  • User-defined Workflows
  • Portfolio Management
  • Critical Path Modeling
    • Gantt charts
    • Early/late start and finish calculations
    • Critical path likelihood
    • Activity slack